Synthestat · Lithuania · population QA

LT 1:1 population synthesis QA cycle

Country-specific layer for synthetic people in households, dwellings, real building stock where available, hidden-population overlays, and work/school assignment evidence.

Board: synthestat-population-qa · Tenant: synthestat · Country: LT · Overall status: running

Ideal-country quality criteria: impossible 1:1 benchmark

This is the common gold-standard benchmark for an ideal country. It is intentionally impossible to fully satisfy: complete success would mean a 1:1 replica of the real population where every person, household, dwelling, attribute, and assignment is exactly represented. The QA page uses it as an asymptote and gap taxonomy, not as a release promise.

Apply this same rubric to this country’s latest run, then report which needs are measured, constrained, modelled, unavailable, or blocked.

Need	Unachievable ideal	QA evidence we require instead	Why perfection cannot be achieved
Complete de jure resident coverage	Every real resident represented exactly once in the right country, municipality, small area, household, and dwelling.	Synthetic person count equals official population at all enforced geographies; no unexplained duplicate, missing, or out-of-universe people.	A true 1:1 resident list is a confidential population register and changes continuously; Synthestat can only match official aggregates and declared source universes.
Complete attribute truth	Each synthetic person has the same age, sex, household role, education, occupation, industry, origin, health proxy, income proxy, and lifecycle state as the corresponding real person.	Published marginal and cross-tab constraints pass within HARD/FIRM/SOFT tolerances; modelled fields carry uncertainty and measured/constrained/modelled provenance.	Official releases do not expose a complete individual joint distribution, and many attributes are survey-derived, lagged, suppressed, or unavailable at fine geography.
Perfect household and family structure	Every household contains the exact real members and relationships, including multi-generation, partnership, child, shared, institutional, and edge-case arrangements.	Household totals, household-type distributions, age/sex/role consistency, fertility/child constraints, and structural invariants pass with explicit residuals.	Household membership is sensitive microdata; public sources usually expose only aggregate household/family tables and partial cross-tabs.
Exact dwelling and building grounding	Every household is assigned to its real dwelling and building with exact occupancy, vacancy, dwelling type, floor area, tenure, and address-level geography.	Dwelling/building capacity checks pass; vacancy/second-home/institutional dwellings are represented or explicitly unavailable; building links have source provenance.	Many countries lack open address-level registers; dwelling occupancy is confidential and time-varying.
Complete de facto and hidden-population overlays	Homeless, undocumented, refugees, students away from home, seasonal, institutional, tourists, and daytime populations are all represented with exact location and timing.	Overlay layers use interval estimates, source-specific quality flags, and never silently modify de jure HARD constraints.	Hidden populations are partly unobserved by definition; ethical/privacy constraints forbid exact person-level labels.
Exact school, workplace, facility, and mobility assignment	Every person is assigned to the real school, workplace, care provider, commute, and daily activity chain they use.	Assignment layers use official registers/OD flows where available; modelled assignments are flagged and validated only against aggregate flows/capacities.	Operational assignments are usually protected registers or dynamic behavioural data; Phase 1 must not imply they are known.
Full joint-distribution realism	The full multivariate joint distribution is identical to reality across all attributes, households, geography, and rare subgroups.	High-priority marginals/cross-tabs pass; sparse zones and prior-dominated attributes are clearly marked with quality tiers and credible intervals.	The joint distribution is non-identifiable from published marginals; IPF/BN/hierarchical pooling choose plausible distributions, not truth.
Zero uncertainty and zero lag	All values are current today and known without error.	Every output records reference period, retrieval timestamp, lag, confidence, uncertainty bounds, and degradation decisions.	Official statistics are lagged, revised, sampled, suppressed, and harmonized after collection.
Privacy-safe yet maximally detailed release	The system releases maximum useful detail while creating zero re-identification risk.	Release mode, k-anonymity/cell safeguards, perturbation/aggregation policy, and sensitive-field treatment are explicit.	Fine-area synthetic microdata can still create structurally unique records; synthetic does not mean anonymous.
Perfect reproducibility and auditability	Any user can trace every output record to exact source snapshots, transformations, constraints, relaxations, seeds, and code versions.	Run manifests, source provenance, checksums, frozen extracts, seeds, versioned crosswalks, validation reports, and relaxation logs are complete.	This is approachable but never final: source portals, classifications, geography, and code keep changing, so audits must be continuously renewed.

Population output status

People	Target population	National coverage	Absolute shortfall	Households	Dwellings	Houses/buildings	Max marginal deviation	HARD status	Run
2,810,761	—	—	—	1,215,360	1,215,360	—	—	pass_exact	`lt_population_review_cycle4_888b7387_seed420987`

Deviation is the maximum absolute relative error across collected HARD/FIRM/SOFT marginal constraints in the latest review bundle. GUIDE/INFORMATIONAL priors are excluded. National target/coverage are read from build_manifest.json when available and override any visual impression of completion.

running

todo

done

Datasets and distributions

Lists come from the latest run bundle: source_provenance.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, and build_manifest.json.

Summary

Datasets used	0
Distributions available	38
Constraints/distributions used in synthesis	3
Constraint types	—
Dataset variants	—
Finest-geography status	—

Source gaps

No source gaps listed.

Datasets used

Dataset/source ID
None listed yet.

Best source by distribution family

Distribution family	Dataset/source ID
None listed yet.

Available distributions / priors in registry

Spec	Label	Type	Geo	Status	Variant	Confidence	Data URI
`C01_education_occupation_coupling`	Education-occupation coupling strength	GUIDE	national	modelled	comparable_country	0.615	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C02_assortative_mating_education`	Assortative mating by education	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	comparable_country	0.625	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C03_assortative_mating_age`	Assortative mating by age	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	comparable_country	0.695	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C04_assortative_mating_origin`	Assortative mating by origin	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	comparable_country	0.635	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C05_spatial_sorting_education`	Spatial sorting by education	GUIDE	national	modelled	comparable_country	0.715	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C06_spatial_sorting_income`	Spatial sorting by income	GUIDE	national	modelled	comparable_country	0.715	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C07_spatial_sorting_origin`	Spatial sorting by origin	GUIDE	national	modelled	comparable_country	0.735	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C08_intergenerational_income_elasticity`	Intergenerational income elasticity	GUIDE	national	modelled	comparable_country	0.595	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C09_intergenerational_occupation_transmission`	Intergenerational occupation transmission	GUIDE	national	modelled	comparable_country	0.595	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C10_commuting_mode_distance`	Commuting mode × distance × occupation × region	GUIDE	municipality	modelled	comparable_country	0.655	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`C11_health_age_sex_education`	Health × age × sex × education	GUIDE	national	modelled	comparable_country	0.635	`data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml`
`D01_age_sex_nuts3`	Age × sex at NUTS-3	HARD	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.74	`docs/wiki/compiled/D01_age_sex_nuts3.md`
`D01_census_age_sex_nuts3`	Census age × sex at NUTS-3	HARD	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.74	`docs/wiki/compiled/D01_census_age_sex_nuts3.md`
`D02_marital_nuts3`	Marital status × age × sex at NUTS-3	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D02_marital_nuts3.md`
`D03_origin_age_sex`	Origin group × age × sex	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D03_origin_age_sex.md`
`D04_religion_age_sex_region`	Religion × age × sex × region	GUIDE	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D04_religion_age_sex_region.md`
`D05_census_education_nuts3`	Census education at NUTS-3	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D05_census_education_nuts3.md`
`D05_education_nuts2`	Education at NUTS-2	FIRM	NUTS-2	constrained	current	0.7	`docs/wiki/compiled/D05_education_nuts2.md`
`D06_employment_age_sex_education`	Employment status × age × sex × education	FIRM	unknown	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D06_employment_age_sex_education.md`
`D07_occupation_isco3`	Occupation ISCO-3 distribution	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D07_occupation_isco3.md`
`D08_occupation_education`	Occupation × education	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D08_occupation_education.md`
`D09_industry_nace2`	Industry NACE-2 distribution	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D09_industry_nace2.md`
`D10_income_education_occupation`	Income × education × occupation	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D10_income_education_occupation.md`
`D11_income_household_type_region`	Income × household type × region	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D11_income_household_type_region.md`
`D12_household_type_size_region`	Household type × size × region	FIRM	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D12_household_type_size_region.md`
`D13_children_mother_age_education`	Children × mother age × education	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D13_children_mother_age_education.md`
`D14_partner_age_gap_homogamy`	Partner age gap × homogamy	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D14_partner_age_gap_homogamy.md`
`D15_coresidence_structure`	Co-residence structure	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D15_coresidence_structure.md`
`D16_household_income_type_region`	Household income × type × region	SOFT	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D16_household_income_type_region.md`
`D17_education_mobility`	Education mobility	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D17_education_mobility.md`
`D18_occupation_given_education`	Occupation \| education	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D18_occupation_given_education.md`
`D19_employment_given_demographics`	Employment \| demographics	SOFT	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D19_employment_given_demographics.md`
`D20_birth_intervals`	Birth intervals	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D20_birth_intervals.md`
`D21_age_first_birth`	Age at first birth × education × cohort	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D21_age_first_birth.md`
`D22_age_leaving_home`	Age leaving home	GUIDE	unknown	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D22_age_leaving_home.md`
`D23_divorce_duration_children_education`	Divorce × duration × children × education	GUIDE	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D23_divorce_duration_children_education.md`
`D24_age_marriage_sex_education`	Age at marriage × sex × education	GUIDE	NUTS-3	constrained	robust	0.71	`docs/wiki/compiled/D24_age_marriage_sex_education.md`
`D25_internal_migration`	Internal migration	FIRM	unknown	constrained	robust	0.73	`docs/wiki/compiled/D25_internal_migration.md`

Constraints/distributions used in synthesis manifest

Constraint or distribution ID
`Eurostat:cens_21resh_r2`
`Eurostat:cens_21hhcs_r3`
`Eurostat:cens_21empo_r2`

Current country tasks

ID	Title	Assignee	Status	Created	Latest summary
t_d3b17db4	LT population QA downloader: freeze exact official payloads for national-scale rerun	synth-downloader	running	2026-05-19 20:17:42 CEST
t_bc67be5c	LT population QA reviewer: inspect national-scale non-fixture rerun	synth-reviewer	todo	2026-05-19 20:17:44 CEST
t_ee0b60c7	LT population QA modeler: national-scale non-fixture synthesis rerun	synth-modeler	todo	2026-05-19 20:17:43 CEST
t_78a5c4a3	LT cycle 4 model fix: enforce household-family age/role/type realism	synth-modeler	done	2026-05-19 20:26:45 CEST	Built LT cycle-4 population review bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/LT/lt_population_review_cycle4_888b7387_seed420987. It preserves 2,810,761 persons / 1,215,360 households / 1,215,360 dwellings, 76/76 HARD residual rows pass_exact, complete explicit unavailable markers, and now passes househ
t_292b6371	LT cycle 3 reviewer inspection: national/NUTS2 constrained model fix bundle	synth-reviewer	done	2026-05-19 20:22:16 CEST	Reviewed LT cycle-3 bundle and returned NEEDS_MODEL_FIX. Cycle-2 artefact blockers are materially addressed (contract complete, no 8-person fixture, 76/76 HARD residual rows pass_exact, variation present, unavailable layers explicit), but household-family realism fails at national scale with 487,000
t_1bfbaf35	LT population QA distribution closure: joint priors for non-fixture synthesis	synth-distributions-researcher	done	2026-05-19 20:17:40 CEST	Completed LT distribution evidence closure: verdict DISTRIBUTION_READY_FOR_MODEL_FIX for national/NUTS2-constrained non-fixture synthesis, with unsupported fine joints kept modelled/unavailable. Wrote LT findings, extraction specs, refreshed distributions/latest.md, and appended a manager update.
t_405d5f40	LT population QA source closure: exact national marginals for non-fixture synthesis	synth-marginals-researcher	done	2026-05-19 20:17:39 CEST	Completed LT national marginal source closure and wrote the required handoffs under /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/marginals. Status is SOURCE_READY_FOR_MODEL_FIX: official controls close 2,810,761 de jure residents, 1,215,360 private households, dwelling targets, non-private/institutio
t_4408d0ca	LT cycle 3 model fix: integrate frozen official LT sources beyond seeded fixture	synth-modeler	done	2026-05-19 20:09:27 CEST	Built LT cycle-3 model-fix review bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/LT/lt_population_review_cycle3_888b7387_seed420987, replacing the prior 8-person fixture with a national/NUTS2-constrained internal candidate: 2,810,761 persons, 1,215,360 households, and 1,215,360 synthetic dwellings. Frozen E
t_bfeae4a3	LT cycle 2 review after source-upgraded model rerun	synth-reviewer	done	2026-05-19 19:59:54 CEST	Reviewed LT cycle-2 bundle and wrote the QA report at /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/reviewer/2026-05-19_181900Z_LT_population_review_cycle2.md. Verdict NEEDS_MODEL_FIX: the bundle is contract-complete and honest about unavailable layers, but remains an 8-person seeded fixture, not a cr
t_cd2a944e	LT cycle 2 model rerun after source/download follow-ups	synth-modeler	done	2026-05-19 19:59:39 CEST	Built and verified the LT cycle-2 population review bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/LT/lt_population_review_cycle2_837bfa75_seed420987 after rerunning the LT seeded source/building/country/hierarchical/population/validation path. The bundle is contract-complete with explicit unavailable hidde
t_4cf4377e	LT downloader schema profile: RC/VDA/NTR official source candidates from t_faad3b28	synth-downloader	done	2026-05-19 18:56:45 CEST	Completed LT official-source downloader schema profiling for the approved RC/VDA/NTR/VMI/Migration/RPPC candidates. Wrote an auditable manifest with small API samples, cheap row counts, bounded VDA/RC cache downloads, checksums, and explicit Sodra/hidden-population degradation flags; no modelling or
t_fbb4483c	LT downloader: freeze Eurostat distribution evidence pulls and OSP native table discovery	synth-downloader	done	2026-05-19 18:52:29 CEST	Froze the approved Lithuania Eurostat distribution evidence queue: all 26 datasets returned HTTP 200 and are stored with raw JSON-stat payloads, headers, URLs, checksums, retrieval timestamps, dimensions/geographies/periods, and flag/status metadata under /home/synthestat/data/ingestion/lt/official_
t_fd1d7d8f	LT cycle-1 distribution gaps: household microstructure and joint priors beyond comparable-country fallbacks	synth-distributions-researcher	done	2026-05-19 18:43:41 CEST	Completed LT distribution-gap research and wrote findings/extraction/latest handoffs under /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/distributions/. Found actionable Lithuania-specific Eurostat Census/LFS/SILC/SES/fertility sources for household microstructure, occupation-origin-workplace, educati
t_faad3b28	LT cycle-1 source gaps: live national marginals, hidden overlays, building/work-school evidence	synth-marginals-researcher	done	2026-05-19 18:43:33 CEST	Completed LT marginal-source research freeze for cycle-1 gaps. Wrote official source handoffs covering RC population-register marginals, VDA census/geospatial/housing packages, RC/Datalab NTR building evidence, VMI/Sodra/LFS/EU-SILC income-employment sources, and Migration/RPPC overlays; created dow
t_c2ade41e	LT population synthesis QA cycle 1 — review bundle and verdict	synth-reviewer	done	2026-05-19 18:35:23 CEST	Reviewed LT cycle-1 population bundle and wrote reviewer memo at /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/reviewer/2026-05-19_164321Z_LT_population_review_cycle1.md. Verdict NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES: bundle is contract-complete with exact HARD/FIRM fit, but source/distribution gaps block PASS beyond th
t_bef90222	LT population synthesis QA cycle 1 — build review bundle	synth-modeler	done	2026-05-19 18:35:09 CEST	Built and verified the LT cycle-1 population review bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/LT/lt_population_review_cycle1_813e5acd_seed420987. The bundle is contract-complete for internal review, HARD residuals pass exactly, and hidden-population/work-school layers are explicit unavailable markers r
t_2bb29733	orchestrate LT population synthesis QA loop	synth-manager	done	2026-05-19 18:34:10 CEST	Routed LT population synthesis QA cycle 1: created synth-modeler bundle-build task t_bef90222 and dependent synth-reviewer bundle-review task t_c2ade41e. Updated /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/manager_updates.md with bottleneck, routing decisions, blockers, and next branch instructions.

Process

Manager kickoff

synth-manager creates and controls the country loop.

Model build

synth-modeler generates the review bundle: people, households, dwellings/buildings or unavailable markers, overlays, assignments, manifests, residuals, diagnostics, uncertainty, provenance.

Reviewer gate

synth-reviewer audits constraints, marginals, household/family realism, hidden populations, dwelling/building grounding, work/school assignment, uncertainty, provenance, and privacy.

Branch

PASS finalizes; NEEDS_MODEL_FIX routes back to modeler; NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES routes to marginal/distribution researchers then downloader; exhausted evidence/model plateau stops for human decision.

Quality gates and stop conditions

PASS: satisfactory for declared country evidence tier and internal review mode.
NEEDS_MODEL_FIX: model logic, bundle, uncertainty, household/dwelling/assignment issue.
NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES: missing marginal or joint/conditional evidence; researchers then downloader.
EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: source search cannot responsibly improve the output.
MODEL_IMPROVEMENT_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: modeler cannot materially improve or diagnostics plateau.