# GR national-scale population review bundle model notes
Run: gr_population_national_candidate_20260519T185320Z_35e33441_seed420987
This is a non-fixture national candidate bundle for Greece using the frozen official payload under `/home/synthestat/data/mirror/GR/population_qa/20260519T183249Z`.
It emits 10,482,487 resident-person rows, 4,332,447 private-household rows, and 6,596,761 conventional-dwelling rows.
HARD controls met exactly:
- Resident persons: 10,482,487
- Male/female totals: 5,125,977 / 5,356,510
- ELSTAT A06 private households: 4,332,447
- ELSTAT A06 private-household members: 10,270,093
- A01 region x age x sex max absolute residual: 0 across 234 cells
- A06 region x household-size max absolute residual: 0 across 65 cells
Evidence-depth contract fix:
- Emitted parquet evidence_depth values now use only the Synthestat contract vocabulary: measured, constrained, modelled, unavailable.
- Legacy labels are documented in uncertainty_summary.json as a machine-readable mapping: partially_constrained -> constrained; aggregate_residual_only -> constrained; firm_official_eurostat_census_control -> constrained.
Geography quality tiers:
- geography_quality_tiers.json now covers every emitted person/household region code (111,112,121,122,231,232,241,242,243,351,461,462,471) as B-tier constrained regional controls.
- Dwellings remain intentionally national-only at zone_code EL because the frozen payload has Eurostat national dwelling controls but no validated regional dwelling/building microstock; this mapping is explicitly documented.
Explicit uncertainty intervals / bounds:
- Hard resident/person/household controls: exact intervals equal to official targets.
- Private/non-private national residual: 212,394, interval [212,394, 212,394] because it is exact A01-A06 arithmetic; regional placement remains modelled.
- Relationship roles/household templates: modelled; declared 95% share-error interval ±12 percentage points around generated role shares until relationship-by-age evidence is retrieved.
- Education/activity/occupation/industry/origin: modelled broad priors; declared 95% share-error interval ±20 percentage points around generated shares until measured Greek cross-tabs are available.
- Residual overlays: non-private residual exact; Eurostat CLQ/non-conventional overlays retained as aggregate provenance with ±10% review intervals and not used as person labels.
- Dwelling assignment residual: 13,303, interval [13,303, 13,303], exact official capacity gap and intentionally unassigned.
Declared degradations / residuals:
- 212,394 resident persons are outside the private-household member universe as an aggregate residual. They are represented without homelessness/refugee/asylum person labels.
- ELSTAT private households exceed Eurostat occupied conventional dwellings by 13,303; those household-dwelling assignments are left unassigned and logged.
- ELSTAT A06 exceeds Eurostat cens_21hhcs_r3 by 1 household; ELSTAT A06 is treated as HARD.
- Work/school assignment and building microstock layers are unavailable in this bundle and remain explicit unavailable/degraded artefacts.
Stopping status: PASS_WITH_DECLARED_DEGRADATIONS_REQUIRES_REVIEWER_VALIDATION.
build_manifest.json
{
"country": "GR",
"country_name": "Greece",
"run_id": "gr_population_national_candidate_20260519T185320Z_35e33441_seed420987",
"created_at": "2026-05-19T18:59:00Z",
"project_root": "/home/synthestat",
"git_commit": "a5ad12d74bcf64a2c256e1fe83d99cc700e02bba-dirty",
"random_seed": 420987,
"source_catalogue_version": "/home/synthestat/data/mirror/GR/population_qa/20260519T183249Z/manifest.json",
"geography_version": "ELSTAT 2021 region codes from A01/A06; national EL dwelling controls from Eurostat",
"classification_crosswalk_versions": {
"education": "Synthestat harmonized ISCED broad priors; no GR fine crosswalk",
"occupation": "ISCO-08 1-digit modelled priors from frozen census/LFS payloads",
"industry": "NACE Rev.2 1-digit modelled priors from frozen census/LFS payloads"
},
"constraints_used": [
{
"id": "GR_ELSTAT_A01_TOTAL",
"class": "HARD",
"target": 10482487,
"actual": 10482487,
"residual": 0
},
{
"id": "GR_ELSTAT_A01_MALE",
"class": "HARD",
"target": 5125977,
"actual": 5125977,
"residual": 0
},
{
"id": "GR_ELSTAT_A01_FEMALE",
"class": "HARD",
"target": 5356510,
"actual": 5356510,
"residual": 0
},
{
"id": "GR_ELSTAT_A06_PRIVATE_HOUSEHOLDS",
"class": "HARD",
"target": 4332447,
"actual": 4332447,
"residual": 0
},
{
"id": "GR_ELSTAT_A06_PRIVATE_MEMBERS",
"class": "HARD",
"target": 10270093,
"actual": 10270093,
"residual": 0
},
{
"id": "GR_EUROSTAT_DWELLINGS_TOTAL",
"class": "FIRM",
"target": 6596761,
"actual": 6596761,
"residual": 0
}
],
"constraints_relaxed": [
{
"source": "Eurostat cens_21hhcs_r3 national household count",
"reason": "ELSTAT A06 has 4,332,447 private households; Eurostat cross-check has 4,332,446. ELSTAT kept as HARD.",
"residual": 1,
"tolerance": "logged informational discrepancy"
},
{
"source": "Eurostat occupied conventional dwellings",
"reason": "Occupied conventional dwellings (4,319,144) are 13,303 below ELSTAT private households; 13,303 household-dwelling assignments left unassigned rather than silently forced.",
"residual": 13303,
"tolerance": "FIRM dwelling/assignment residual requiring ELSTAT building/dwelling reconciliation"
}
],
"zones_degraded": [
{
"zone": "EL",
"reason": "National dwelling stock is controlled to Eurostat conventional-dwelling totals only. Dwellings are intentionally emitted at national EL because no validated ELSTAT regional dwelling/building microstock was available in the frozen payload; this is not a hidden collapse of person/household regional geography.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "111",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "112",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "121",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "122",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "231",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "232",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "241",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "242",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "243",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "351",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "461",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "462",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
},
{
"zone": "471",
"reason": "ELSTAT 2021 region-level A01 age-sex and A06 household-size/member controls are fitted exactly for this emitted person/household region; attributes below those controls and dwelling/building grounding remain modelled/unavailable.",
"quality_tier": "B",
"evidence_depth": "constrained"
}
],
"hidden_population_scope": {
"included": "Aggregate non-private resident residual and Eurostat CLQ/non-conventional overlay counts only.",
"excluded": "No homelessness/asylum/refugee person labels; no unverified hidden-population person classification."
},
"assignment_scope": {
"dwelling": "Official conventional dwelling rows emitted; assignments partial with 13,303 residual logged.",
"work_school": "unavailable"
},
"known_limitations": [
"Within-household relationship graph is modelled because public aggregate payloads do not expose exact member-age matrices.",
"Private/non-private age-sex split is deterministic regional scaling from total A01 to A06 private-member totals.",
"Education/activity/occupation/industry/origin are broad modelled attributes with uncertainty notes, not fine-geography measured facts.",
"Building IDs/floor area/rooms unavailable pending ELSTAT-native building/dwelling table extraction."
],
"row_counts": {
"synthetic_persons": 10482487,
"synthetic_households": 4332447,
"synthetic_dwellings": 6596761,
"synthetic_building_assignments": 4332447,
"hidden_population_overlays": 3
},
"official_targets": {
"resident_persons": 10482487,
"private_households_elstat_a06": 4332447,
"private_household_members_elstat_a06": 10270093,
"male": 5125977,
"female": 5356510,
"conventional_dwellings_eurostat": 6596761,
"occupied_conventional_dwellings_eurostat": 4319144
},
"source_payload_manifest": "/home/synthestat/data/mirror/GR/population_qa/20260519T183249Z/manifest.json",
"source_payload_checksums": "/home/synthestat/data/mirror/GR/population_qa/20260519T183249Z/checksums.sha256",
"evidence_depth_vocabulary": [
"measured",
"constrained",
"modelled",
"unavailable"
],
"evidence_depth_contract_mapping": {
"partially_constrained": "constrained",
"aggregate_residual_only": "constrained",
"firm_official_eurostat_census_control": "constrained"
},
"diagnostic_fit_summary": {
"a01_region_age_sex_max_abs_residual": 0,
"a01_region_age_sex_cells": 234,
"a06_region_household_size_max_abs_residual": 0,
"a06_region_household_size_cells": 65,
"unassigned_dwelling_residual": 13303,
"unassigned_dwelling_residual_semantics": "Households above official occupied conventional dwelling capacity are intentionally unassigned. This is a declared FIRM residual, not a missing assignment-table row and not silently allocated to vacant/non-conventional dwellings."
}
}
constraint_residuals.json
{
"status": "PASS_WITH_DECLARED_DEGRADATIONS",
"hard_residuals": {
"GR_ELSTAT_A01_TOTAL": 0,
"GR_ELSTAT_A01_MALE": 0,
"GR_ELSTAT_A01_FEMALE": 0,
"GR_ELSTAT_A06_PRIVATE_HOUSEHOLDS": 0,
"GR_ELSTAT_A06_PRIVATE_MEMBERS": 0
},
"firm_residuals": {
"occupied_dwelling_assignment_gap": 13303,
"elstat_vs_eurostat_household_gap": 1
},
"minor_slot_fallbacks": 0,
"a01_region_age_sex_max_abs_residual": 0,
"a01_region_age_sex_cells": 234,
"a06_region_household_size_max_abs_residual": 0,
"a06_region_household_size_cells": 65,
"unassigned_dwelling_residual": {
"private_households": 4332447,
"occupied_conventional_dwellings": 4319144,
"unassigned_private_households": 13303,
"semantics": "Households above official occupied conventional dwelling capacity are intentionally unassigned. This is a declared FIRM residual, not a missing assignment-table row and not silently allocated to vacant/non-conventional dwellings."
}
}