Synthestat · Greece · population QA
GR 1:1 population synthesis QA cycle
Country-specific layer for synthetic people in households, dwellings, real building stock where available, hidden-population overlays, and work/school assignment evidence.
Board: synthestat-population-qa · Tenant: synthestat · Country: GR · Task workflow status: ready · Artifact completion: review_bundle_metrics_partial
Ideal-country quality criteria: impossible 1:1 benchmark
This is the common gold-standard benchmark for an ideal country. It is intentionally impossible to fully satisfy: complete success would mean a 1:1 replica of the real population where every person, household, dwelling, attribute, and assignment is exactly represented. The QA page uses it as an asymptote and gap taxonomy, not as a release promise.
Apply this same rubric to this country’s latest run, then report which needs are measured, constrained, modelled, unavailable, or blocked.
| Need | Unachievable ideal | QA evidence we require instead | Why perfection cannot be achieved |
|---|---|---|---|
| Complete de jure resident coverage | Every real resident represented exactly once in the right country, municipality, small area, household, and dwelling. | Synthetic person count equals official population at all enforced geographies; no unexplained duplicate, missing, or out-of-universe people. | A true 1:1 resident list is a confidential population register and changes continuously; Synthestat can only match official aggregates and declared source universes. |
| Complete attribute truth | Each synthetic person has the same age, sex, household role, education, occupation, industry, origin, health proxy, income proxy, and lifecycle state as the corresponding real person. | Published marginal and cross-tab constraints pass within HARD/FIRM/SOFT tolerances; modelled fields carry uncertainty and measured/constrained/modelled provenance. | Official releases do not expose a complete individual joint distribution, and many attributes are survey-derived, lagged, suppressed, or unavailable at fine geography. |
| Perfect household and family structure | Every household contains the exact real members and relationships, including multi-generation, partnership, child, shared, institutional, and edge-case arrangements. | Household totals, household-type distributions, age/sex/role consistency, fertility/child constraints, and structural invariants pass with explicit residuals. | Household membership is sensitive microdata; public sources usually expose only aggregate household/family tables and partial cross-tabs. |
| Exact dwelling and building grounding | Every household is assigned to its real dwelling and building with exact occupancy, vacancy, dwelling type, floor area, tenure, and address-level geography. | Dwelling/building capacity checks pass; vacancy/second-home/institutional dwellings are represented or explicitly unavailable; building links have source provenance. | Many countries lack open address-level registers; dwelling occupancy is confidential and time-varying. |
| Complete de facto and hidden-population overlays | Homeless, undocumented, refugees, students away from home, seasonal, institutional, tourists, and daytime populations are all represented with exact location and timing. | Overlay layers use interval estimates, source-specific quality flags, and never silently modify de jure HARD constraints. | Hidden populations are partly unobserved by definition; ethical/privacy constraints forbid exact person-level labels. |
| Exact school, workplace, facility, and mobility assignment | Every person is assigned to the real school, workplace, care provider, commute, and daily activity chain they use. | Assignment layers use official registers/OD flows where available; modelled assignments are flagged and validated only against aggregate flows/capacities. | Operational assignments are usually protected registers or dynamic behavioural data; Phase 1 must not imply they are known. |
| Full joint-distribution realism | The full multivariate joint distribution is identical to reality across all attributes, households, geography, and rare subgroups. | High-priority marginals/cross-tabs pass; sparse zones and prior-dominated attributes are clearly marked with quality tiers and credible intervals. | The joint distribution is non-identifiable from published marginals; IPF/BN/hierarchical pooling choose plausible distributions, not truth. |
| Zero uncertainty and zero lag | All values are current today and known without error. | Every output records reference period, retrieval timestamp, lag, confidence, uncertainty bounds, and degradation decisions. | Official statistics are lagged, revised, sampled, suppressed, and harmonized after collection. |
| Privacy-safe yet maximally detailed release | The system releases maximum useful detail while creating zero re-identification risk. | Release mode, k-anonymity/cell safeguards, perturbation/aggregation policy, and sensitive-field treatment are explicit. | Fine-area synthetic microdata can still create structurally unique records; synthetic does not mean anonymous. |
| Perfect reproducibility and auditability | Any user can trace every output record to exact source snapshots, transformations, constraints, relaxations, seeds, and code versions. | Run manifests, source provenance, checksums, frozen extracts, seeds, versioned crosswalks, validation reports, and relaxation logs are complete. | This is approachable but never final: source portals, classifications, geography, and code keep changing, so audits must be continuously renewed. |
Population artifact output status (separate from task status)
| Artifact completion | Row count source | People | Target population | National coverage | Absolute shortfall | Households | Dwellings | Houses/buildings | Max marginal deviation | HARD status | Run |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| review_bundle_metrics_partial | parquet_metadata_review_bundle | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | gr_population_national_candidate_20260519T185320Z_35e33441_seed420987 |
This table describes emitted population artifacts only. It is intentionally independent from the Kanban task workflow status below: a country can have all tasks done while its artifact is still only a seeded slice, or a passing review bundle can still lack national target completion. Deviation is the maximum absolute relative error across collected HARD/FIRM/SOFT marginal constraints in the latest review bundle. GUIDE/INFORMATIONAL priors are excluded. National target/coverage are read from build_manifest.json when available and override any visual impression of completion.
Kanban task workflow status (not artifact completion)
ready
1
done
7
These cards count board tasks only. They do not certify that the country-level population artifact is nationally complete or reviewer-approved.
Datasets and distributions
Lists come from the latest run bundle: source_provenance.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, and build_manifest.json.
Summary
| Datasets used | 0 |
|---|---|
| Distributions available | 0 |
| Constraints/distributions used in synthesis | 6 |
| Constraint types | — |
| Dataset variants | — |
| Finest-geography status | — |
Source gaps
- No source gaps listed.
Datasets used
| Dataset/source ID |
|---|
| None listed yet. |
Best source by distribution family
| Distribution family | Dataset/source ID |
|---|---|
| None listed yet. | |
Available distributions / priors in registry
| Spec | Label | Type | Geo | Status | Variant | Confidence | Data URI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None listed yet. | |||||||
Constraints/distributions used in synthesis manifest
| Constraint or distribution ID |
|---|
{'id': 'GR_ELSTAT_A01_TOTAL', 'class': 'HARD', 'target': 10482487, 'actual': 10482487, 'residual': 0} |
{'id': 'GR_ELSTAT_A01_MALE', 'class': 'HARD', 'target': 5125977, 'actual': 5125977, 'residual': 0} |
{'id': 'GR_ELSTAT_A01_FEMALE', 'class': 'HARD', 'target': 5356510, 'actual': 5356510, 'residual': 0} |
{'id': 'GR_ELSTAT_A06_PRIVATE_HOUSEHOLDS', 'class': 'HARD', 'target': 4332447, 'actual': 4332447, 'residual': 0} |
{'id': 'GR_ELSTAT_A06_PRIVATE_MEMBERS', 'class': 'HARD', 'target': 10270093, 'actual': 10270093, 'residual': 0} |
{'id': 'GR_EUROSTAT_DWELLINGS_TOTAL', 'class': 'FIRM', 'target': 6596761, 'actual': 6596761, 'residual': 0} |
Current country tasks
| ID | Title | Assignee | Status | Created | Latest summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| t_d8eedf36 | GR final human/internal review note for national candidate PASS | synth-reviewer | ready | 2026-05-19 22:03:32 CEST | |
| t_a6630369 | GR reviewer re-check: patched national candidate geography tiers and uncertainty metadata | synth-reviewer | done | 2026-05-19 21:22:43 CEST | Reviewed patched GR national candidate bundle and returned PASS for internal review readiness: required bundle files are present/readable, HARD controls and A01/A06 regional residuals are exact, geography tiers/evidence vocabulary now cover emitted outputs, and remaining dwelling/work-school/hidden- |
| t_677ca342 | GR model fix: add complete geography tiers and uncertainty metadata for national candidate | synth-modeler | done | 2026-05-19 21:15:27 CEST | Patched the GR national candidate bundle in place for the reviewer contract blockers: geography tiers now cover EL plus all 13 emitted ELSTAT region codes, parquet evidence_depth uses contract vocabulary, uncertainty intervals/bounds are explicit, and diagnostics expose zero A01/A06 max residuals pl |
| t_d4f4d8b6 | GR population QA reviewer: inspect national-scale non-fixture rerun | synth-reviewer | done | 2026-05-19 20:17:28 CEST | Reviewed GR national candidate bundle and returned NEEDS_MODEL_FIX. The artifact is national-scale and not a fixture, with independently verified exact A01 region age-sex and A06 region household-size controls, but PASS_FOR_INTERNAL_REVIEW is blocked by incomplete geography tier coverage, non-contra |
| t_6b171a41 | GR population QA modeler: national-scale non-fixture synthesis rerun | synth-modeler | done | 2026-05-19 20:17:26 CEST | Built a non-fixture GR national candidate review bundle at /home/synthestat/output/runs/GR/gr_population_national_candidate_20260519T185320Z_35e33441_seed420987. Parquet metadata verification confirms 10,482,487 persons, 4,332,447 households, 10,270,093 private-household members, exact sex totals, a |
| t_cf3e1a69 | GR population QA downloader: freeze exact official payloads for national-scale rerun | synth-downloader | done | 2026-05-19 20:17:26 CEST | SOURCE_PAYLOAD_READY for GR national-scale population QA: froze approved ELSTAT/Eurostat payloads under /home/synthestat/data/mirror/GR/population_qa/20260519T183249Z with manifest/checksums and downloader handoff reports. No production catalogue was overwritten; remaining failures are 0, with cens_ |
| t_9485e33a | GR population QA distribution closure: joint priors for non-fixture synthesis | synth-distributions-researcher | done | 2026-05-19 20:17:25 CEST | Completed GR/Greece distribution-prior closure for non-fixture population QA. Verdict is DISTRIBUTION_READY_FOR_MODEL_FIX using official Eurostat/ELSTAT 2021 Census household/family/person/dwelling/education/occupation/origin aggregates, with explicit GUIDE/modelled caveats for dyad ages, exact rela |
| t_6a2cb956 | GR population QA source closure: exact national marginals for non-fixture synthesis | synth-marginals-researcher | done | 2026-05-19 20:17:24 CEST | Completed GR population QA source closure and wrote /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/marginals/2026-05-19_1823_GR_sources.md plus needs/latest updates. Found SOURCE_READY_FOR_MODEL_FIX official controls: ELSTAT 2021 resident population 10,482,487, private households 4,332,447, settlement/ |
Process
Manager kickoff
synth-manager creates and controls the country loop.
Model build
synth-modeler generates the review bundle: people, households, dwellings/buildings or unavailable markers, overlays, assignments, manifests, residuals, diagnostics, uncertainty, provenance.
Reviewer gate
synth-reviewer audits constraints, marginals, household/family realism, hidden populations, dwelling/building grounding, work/school assignment, uncertainty, provenance, and privacy.
Branch
PASS finalizes; NEEDS_MODEL_FIX routes back to modeler; NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES routes to marginal/distribution researchers then downloader; exhausted evidence/model plateau stops for human decision.
Quality gates and stop conditions
- PASS: satisfactory for declared country evidence tier and internal review mode.
- NEEDS_MODEL_FIX: model logic, bundle, uncertainty, household/dwelling/assignment issue.
- NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES: missing marginal or joint/conditional evidence; researchers then downloader.
- EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: source search cannot responsibly improve the output.
- MODEL_IMPROVEMENT_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW: modeler cannot materially improve or diagnostics plateau.