Body
Country: SE (Sweden)
Project root / allowed write root: /home/synthestat
Parent manager task: t_0c611b3b
Inputs to read first:
- /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/SE_other_synthesis_ingest.md
- /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1803_missing_requirements.md
- reviewer handoff on t_33ff07f7 (verdict NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES)
- docs/specs/research_knowledge_base.md
- docs/contracts/population_review_bundle.md
Mission:
Resolve Sweden distribution/prior evidence needed before the next SE modeler pass. Focus on household/family composition, relationship graph realism, origin/background assignment, work/school/second-home assignment priors, and hidden/weakly measured overlay priors.
Priority lanes:
1. Reconstruct or locate the Sweden household-composition prior bundle described in other_synthesis: data/distributions/sweden_household_composition/ with metadata/source_manifest.json, validation_report.md, table_usability.csv, priors/index.csv, direct/soft/historical priors, consolidated prior parquet/CSV/schema.
2. Validate concrete source candidates: HushallT05, HushallT07, HushallT28, LE0102T16N23, LE0102T17, LE0102T21N23, LE0102T23, GiftSkilsmassaTyp, CivilstandTypPar, MedelAlder1, Human Fertility Database, Kolk 2015, Kolk & Andersson 2019/2020, Mollborn/Kolk/Evertsson 2025, Hakovirta et al. 2023, Bergström et al. 2019, Helgertz et al. 2024, Cantalini/Ohlsson-Wijk/Andersson 2024.
3. Distinguish measured vs constrained vs modelled vs unknown for family_role, partner/parent links, sibling structures, same-sex cohabitation, shared custody/dual residence, first-birth age, parent-child/couple age gaps, income-standard bands.
4. Identify assignment priors for school, workplace, second homes only as distributions/priors; do not treat GUIDE mobility/Telia/POI signals as population-count measurements.
5. Hidden-population priors: determine if any defensible distributions exist for homelessness/refugees/Ukrainians/Syrians/undocumented/institutional/seasonal/student-housing; otherwise recommend explicit unavailable/partial overlays with uncertainty treatment.
Deliverable:
Write a concise distribution-research handoff under /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/researcher/ named with timestamp and SE_population_distribution_priors. Include source IDs/URLs/citations, reference periods, geography levels, candidate constraint type (SOFT/GUIDE/INFORMATIONAL unless direct measured), uncertainty bounds or recommended interval strategy, and downloader-ready artifact requests.
Definition of done:
- Clear recommendation on whether the local household-prior bundle can be reused, must be rebuilt, or is absent.
- Concrete prior tables/papers are triaged into download now / citation only / licensed/unavailable / human decision.
- Explicit warnings for any prior that must not be represented as measured DeSO truth.