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LU national-scale population artifact gap: replace seeded PASS fixture or block with exact source/model requirements

blocked synth-modeler

Task metadata

id	t_a6be867f
title	LU national-scale population artifact gap: replace seeded PASS fixture or block with exact source/model requirements
assignee	synth-modeler
status	blocked
tenant	synthestat
priority	96
workspace_kind	dir
workspace_path	/home/synthestat
created_by	synth-manager
created_at	2026-05-19 20:15:21 CEST
started_at	2026-05-19 20:15:38 CEST
completed_at

Latest summary

National LU build blocked: current artifact is only 9 persons/9 households vs STATEC 681,973 residents (2025-01-01) and RP2021 250,325 private households; live LU sources/building/cross-border/hidden/work-school evidence must be fixed before a national review bundle can be produced.

Body

Country: LU. Current reviewer PASS (t_681a61c6) is explicitly scoped only to a 9-person seeded two-zone internal bundle; /home/synthestat/output/LU/persons.parquet currently has 9 rows. This is not national Luxembourg product completion. Build a concrete national-scale/credible larger-country candidate if existing provenanced inputs support it; otherwise block with exact missing source/model requirements. Requirements: establish official national target population/households with provenance and reference period; compare synthetic row counts against target; preserve HARD > FIRM > SOFT > GUIDE; no silent constraint relaxation; keep hidden population, cross-border/daytime, work/school/facility, dwelling/building, sparse fine-geography layers explicit with uncertainty/degradation flags; output docs/contracts/population_review_bundle.md-compliant artifacts and modeler handoffs. Do not relabel the seeded PASS bundle as national.

Parents

[
  "t_681a61c6"
]

Children

[
  "t_50596b3a"
]

Runs

ID	Profile	Status	Outcome	Started	Ended	Summary/error
97	synth-modeler	blocked	blocked	2026-05-19 20:15:38 CEST	2026-05-19 20:21:30 CEST	National LU build blocked: current artifact is only 9 persons/9 households vs STATEC 681,973 residents (2025-01-01) and RP2021 250,325 private households; live LU sources/building/cross-border/hidden/work-school evidence must be fixed before a national review bundle can be produced.

Events

Time	Kind	Payload
2026-05-19 20:15:21 CEST	created	`{ "assignee": "synth-modeler", "status": "ready", "parents": [ "t_681a61c6" ], "tenant": "synthestat", "skills": null }`
2026-05-19 20:15:38 CEST	claimed	`{ "lock": "vmi3188806:1590352", "expires": 1779215438, "run_id": 97 }`
2026-05-19 20:15:38 CEST	spawned	`{ "pid": 1667864 }`
2026-05-19 20:21:26 CEST	commented	`{ "author": "synth-modeler", "len": 1797 }`
2026-05-19 20:21:30 CEST	blocked	`{ "reason": "National LU build blocked: current artifact is only 9 persons/9 households vs STATEC 681,973 residents (2025-01-01) and RP2021 250,325 private households; live LU sources/building/cross-border/hidden/work-school evidence must be fixed before a national review bundle can be produced." }`

Comments

2026-05-19 20:21:26 CEST · synth-modeler

review/block handoff:
{
  "decision": "BLOCK_NATIONAL_SCALE_BUILD_NOT_SUPPORTED_BY_CURRENT_INPUTS",
  "country": "LU",
  "artifact_assessment": "/home/synthestat/output/runs/LU/lu_national_gap_assessment_20260519_1819/national_gap_assessment.json",
  "handoffs": [
    "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1821_build_status.md",
    "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/2026-05-19_1821_missing_requirements.md",
    "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/modeller/latest.md"
  ],
  "current_counts": {"persons": 9, "households": 9, "dwellings": 9, "buildings": 3},
  "official_targets_established": {
    "resident_population_2025_01_01": {"value": 681973, "source": "STATEC Luxembourg's demography in figures 2025", "url": "https://statistiques.public.lu/en/publications/series/en-chiffres/2025/demographie-lux-en-chiffres-2025.html"},
    "private_households_RP2021": {"value": 250325, "source": "STATEC RP2021 Households and family types", "url": "https://statistiques.public.lu/en/publications/recensement/menages-et-types-de-familles.html"}
  },
  "validation": "Verified artifacts exist and national_gap_assessment.json parses. No national review bundle emitted because current evidence cannot support one without relabeling/fabricating precision.",
  "key_blockers": [
    "Current output/LU/persons.parquet has 9 rows vs 681,973 resident target.",
    "Current output/LU/households.parquet has 9 rows vs RP2021 250,325 private-household baseline; current household target still missing.",
    "LU live distribution readiness remains blocked_on_live_downloads with 0/5 live sources covered.",
    "National building/dwelling, cross-border/daytime, hidden population, and work/school/facility layers lack bounded integrated evidence."
  ]
}