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CZ joint/conditional distribution evidence for modelled Cxx/Dxx surfaces

done synth-distributions-researcher

Task metadata

idt_5393f669
titleCZ joint/conditional distribution evidence for modelled Cxx/Dxx surfaces
assigneesynth-distributions-researcher
statusdone
tenantsynthestat
priority100
workspace_kindscratch
workspace_path/home/synthestat/.hermes/kanban/boards/synthestat-population-qa/workspaces/t_5393f669
created_bysynth-reviewer
created_at2026-05-19 18:36:47 CEST
started_at2026-05-19 18:38:35 CEST
completed_at2026-05-19 18:54:03 CEST

Latest summary

Completed CZ joint/conditional evidence search and wrote distribution handoffs: findings, extraction specs, and latest evidence board. Key result: most weak Cxx surfaces can be upgraded with CZSO/Eurostat Czech-specific sources, but public ISCO-2/3 occupation and C08 income mobility remain evidence-exhausted; spawned a downloader freeze task for the exact artifacts.

Body

Follow-up from CZ population QA cycle 1 reviewer handoff.

Parent review: t_a0950153
Reviewed bundle: /home/synthestat/output/runs/CZ/cz_population_review_cycle1_7ec6406c_seed420987
Reviewer handoff: /home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/reviewer/2026-05-19_163440Z_CZ_population_review_cycle1.md
Reviewer verdict: NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES

Research/source-freeze scope:
- Find Czechia-specific joint/conditional evidence for C01-C11 and Dxx modelled surfaces currently transferred from comparable-country priors.
- Priority surfaces: education-occupation coupling, assortative mating by education/age/origin, intergenerational income/occupation, commuting mode-distance, health by age/sex/education, fertility/household lifecycle, coresidence, migration/origin sorting.
- Find fine occupation/industry cross-tabs beyond ISCO-1 fallback, ideally ISCO-2/3 by age/sex/education/region or document why unavailable.

Context from review:
- distribution_diagnostics.json has 38/38 coverage but 11 comparable-country/modelled entries.
- 8 entries below confidence 0.7: C01, C02, C03, C04, C08, C09, C10, C11.
- 100% employed persons in the seeded bundle use fallback_1digit occupation coding.

Acceptance criteria:
- Return concrete source URLs/table IDs/API endpoints/file identifiers, licence/provenance, variable/geography coverage, and uncertainty/quality assessment.
- Identify which registry specs each source can improve and whether downloader/catalogue follow-up is needed.
- If evidence is exhausted, document search terms/portals checked and recommend human review for the exhausted surfaces.
- Do not model or alter the population bundle.

Parents

[
  "t_a0950153"
]

Children

[
  "t_70f8ac25",
  "t_d0d7c4c0"
]

Runs

IDProfileStatusOutcomeStartedEndedSummary/error
23synth-distributions-researcherdonecompleted2026-05-19 18:38:35 CEST2026-05-19 18:54:03 CESTCompleted CZ joint/conditional evidence search and wrote distribution handoffs: findings, extraction specs, and latest evidence board. Key result: most weak Cxx surfaces can be upgraded with CZSO/Eurostat Czech-specific sources, but public ISCO-2/3 occupation and C08 income mobility remain evidence-exhausted; spawned a downloader freeze task for the exact artifacts.

Events

TimeKindPayload
2026-05-19 18:36:47 CESTcreated{ "assignee": "synth-distributions-researcher", "status": "todo", "parents": [ "t_a0950153" ], "tenant": "synthestat", "skills": null }
2026-05-19 18:37:34 CESTpromotednull
2026-05-19 18:38:35 CESTclaimed{ "lock": "vmi3188806:1590352", "expires": 1779209615, "run_id": 23 }
2026-05-19 18:38:35 CESTspawned{ "pid": 1617308 }
2026-05-19 18:53:53 CESTclaim_extended{ "reason": "pid_alive", "worker_pid": 1617308, "claim_lock": "vmi3188806:1590352", "claim_expires_was": 1779209615, "claim_expires_now": 1779210533, "last_heartbeat_at": null }
2026-05-19 18:54:03 CESTcompleted{ "result_len": 0, "summary": "Completed CZ joint/conditional evidence search and wrote distribution handoffs: findings, extraction specs, and latest evidence board. Key result: most weak Cxx surfaces can be upgraded with CZSO/Eurostat Czech-specific sources, but public ISCO-2/3 occupation and C08 income mobility remain evidence-exhausted; spawned a downloader freeze task for the exact artifacts.", "verified_cards": [ "t_70f8ac25" ], "artifacts": [ "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/distributions/2026-05-19_1639_findings.md", "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/distributions/2026-05-19_1639_extraction_specs.md", "/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/distributions/latest.md" ] }

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