BG joint and conditional distribution evidence for modelled Cxx/Dxx surfaces
done synth-distributions-researcher
Task metadata
| id | t_06ddffd0 |
|---|---|
| title | BG joint and conditional distribution evidence for modelled Cxx/Dxx surfaces |
| assignee | synth-distributions-researcher |
| status | done |
| tenant | synthestat |
| priority | 100 |
| workspace_kind | scratch |
| workspace_path | /home/synthestat/.hermes/kanban/boards/synthestat-population-qa/workspaces/t_06ddffd0 |
| created_by | synth-reviewer |
| created_at | 2026-05-19 18:44:33 CEST |
| started_at | 2026-05-19 18:46:48 CEST |
| completed_at | 2026-05-19 18:58:27 CEST |
Latest summary
Completed BG joint/conditional distribution evidence handoff. Wrote findings, extraction specs, refreshed distributions latest board, and appended manager update; strongest replacement sources are Eurostat Census 2021, Eurostat LFS/SILC, NSI open-data mirrors, with GGP Bulgaria as restricted-microdata lead.
Body
Reviewer verdict for BG cycle 1 is NEEDS_MORE_SOURCES. Concrete joint/conditional distribution questions to close before a PASS-capable rerun: Context: - Bundle reviewed: /home/synthestat/output/runs/BG/bg_population_review_cycle1_85123614_seed420987 - distribution_diagnostics.json reports 38 registry entries, but 11 are comparable_country/modelled and 8 are below confidence 0.7. - Current synthetic persons are fixture-like/homogeneous (all DOB 1991-06-15, ISCED_5/high, employed_ft, occupation_isco1=2, industry_nace1=M); ISCO-3 and NACE-2 are null/fallback for all persons. Questions / acceptance criteria: 1. Find Bulgaria-specific joint/conditional evidence for C01-C11 and modelled Dxx surfaces currently transferred from comparable-country priors, especially education-occupation, assortative mating by education/age/origin, intergenerational income/occupation, commuting mode-distance, health by age/sex/education, fertility/household lifecycle, coresidence, migration/origin sorting. 2. Find fine occupation/industry cross-tabs beyond ISCO-1 fallback, ideally ISCO-2/3 and NACE-2 by age/sex/education/region, or document why unavailable. 3. Find household/family realism priors specific to Bulgaria: parent-child age gaps, couple age gaps, adult status, multigenerational/co-residence, household lifecycle, student co-residence, institutional residence if available. 4. Return concrete source URLs/table IDs/API endpoints, reference periods, licences, uncertainty/standard error availability, and a depth-of-evidence recommendation for measured/constrained/modelled/unavailable. Do not ask modeler to use unfrozen sources directly; concrete findings should be routed to downloader/catalogue freezing before modelling.
Parents
[ "t_f9004c92" ]
Children
[ "t_cef2680b" ]
Runs
| ID | Profile | Status | Outcome | Started | Ended | Summary/error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | synth-distributions-researcher | done | completed | 2026-05-19 18:46:48 CEST | 2026-05-19 18:58:27 CEST | Completed BG joint/conditional distribution evidence handoff. Wrote findings, extraction specs, refreshed distributions latest board, and appended manager update; strongest replacement sources are Eurostat Census 2021, Eurostat LFS/SILC, NSI open-data mirrors, with GGP Bulgaria as restricted-microdata lead. |
Events
| Time | Kind | Payload |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 18:44:33 CEST | created | {
"assignee": "synth-distributions-researcher",
"status": "todo",
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| 2026-05-19 18:46:02 CEST | promoted | null |
| 2026-05-19 18:46:48 CEST | claimed | {
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| 2026-05-19 18:46:48 CEST | spawned | {
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| 2026-05-19 18:58:27 CEST | completed | {
"result_len": 0,
"summary": "Completed BG joint/conditional distribution evidence handoff. Wrote findings, extraction specs, refreshed distributions latest board, and appended manager update; strongest replacement sources are Eurostat Census 2021, Eurostat LFS/SILC, NSI open-data mirrors, with GGP Bulgaria as restricted-microdata lead.",
"artifacts": [
"/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/distributions/2026-05-19_1653_findings.md",
"/home/synthestat/workspace/manager_handoffs/distributions/2026-05-19_1653_extraction_specs.md"
]
} |
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