se_population_review_cycle2_3a9d999a_seed420987

Output status

Run files

Datasets and distributions

Lists come from the latest run bundle: source_provenance.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, and build_manifest.json.

Datasets used

Best source by distribution family

Available distributions / priors in registry

Constraints/distributions used in synthesis manifest

model_notes.md

# SE population review bundle cycle 2

Run: `se_population_review_cycle2_3a9d999a_seed420987`

This bundle replaces the prior 8-person/two-zone fixture with an explicitly labelled stratified multi-DeSO Sweden candidate. It is not full-national. It covers 42 selected DeSO zones (median and largest positive-population DeSO per county) and emits 91030 synthetic persons, 43739 households, and 43739 dwelling shell records.

## Constraint and uncertainty position

- HARD: 2025 SCB DeSO age-sex counts from frozen `population_age_sex_deso` are exactly replicated for every selected zone and sex.
- FIRM/SOFT/GUIDE: household size/composition, origin, education, labour, income, occupation/industry and dwelling shells are source-informed modelled fields with per-row provenance/fallback metadata.
- Occupation and industry at fine geography are not measured here; they are broad fallback/modelled values only.
- Hidden-population overlays, building assignments, and work/school assignments are emitted as unavailable JSON files rather than silently inferred.

## Official target comparison

See `constraint_residuals.json`: selected-zone official target population is 91030; synthetic person count is 91030; residual is 0.

## Review recommendation

Review as `EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW` / non-toy stratified multi-DeSO candidate, not production full-national Sweden. The next material improvement requires official residential building/dwelling/address anchors and richer household/family roster evidence by fine geography.

build_manifest.json

{
  "assignment_scope": {
    "dwelling_building": "unavailable official building assignment; modelled dwelling shells only",
    "facility": "unavailable",
    "school": "unavailable",
    "work": "unavailable"
  },
  "candidate_scope": "stratified_multi_DeSO_not_full_national",
  "classification_crosswalk_versions": {
    "education": "ISCED-2011 broad model mapping; not row-measured",
    "industry": "NACE Rev.2/SNI 1-digit fallback only",
    "occupation": "ISCO-08 1-digit fallback only"
  },
  "constraints_relaxed": [
    {
      "reason": "No exact public household roster/family graph by selected DeSO frozen; modelled from national prior",
      "residual": null,
      "source": "household composition at DeSO",
      "tolerance": "not claimed as HARD"
    },
    {
      "reason": "No official residential building anchor frozen",
      "residual": null,
      "source": "building assignment",
      "tolerance": "unavailable"
    }
  ],
  "constraints_used": [
    "D01_population_age_sex_deso_HARD_exact_for_selected_zones",
    "national_household_size_prior_FIRM_MODELLED",
    "DeSO/municipality/national fallback metadata per row"
  ],
  "contract_files": [
    "synthetic_persons.parquet",
    "synthetic_households.parquet",
    "synthetic_dwellings.parquet",
    "synthetic_building_assignments.unavailable.json",
    "hidden_population_overlays.unavailable.json",
    "work_school_assignments.unavailable.json",
    "build_manifest.json",
    "constraint_residuals.json",
    "distribution_diagnostics.json",
    "household_diagnostics.json",
    "dwelling_building_diagnostics.json",
    "assignment_diagnostics.json",
    "geography_quality_tiers.json",
    "uncertainty_summary.json",
    "source_provenance.json",
    "model_notes.md"
  ],
  "country": "SE",
  "counts": {
    "dwellings": 43739,
    "households": 43739,
    "persons": 91030
  },
  "created_at": "2026-05-19T18:58:01Z",
  "geography_version": "SCB DeSO/RegSO 2025 from TAB6574 frozen source; selected stratified DeSO subset",
  "git_commit": "a5ad12d74bcf64a2c256e1fe83d99cc700e02bba-dirty",
  "hidden_population_scope": {
    "evidence_status": "source closure found no hard/firm DeSO overlay evidence",
    "excluded": [
      "homelessness",
      "irregular migrants",
      "seasonal workers",
      "student dormitories",
      "institutional residents"
    ],
    "included": [],
    "status": "unavailable"
  },
  "known_limitations": [
    "Not a full-national 1:1 Sweden run; explicit stratified multi-DeSO candidate with exact age-sex controls for selected zones.",
    "Person attributes beyond age/sex/location are modelled and flagged; occupation/industry are fallback broad categories.",
    "No hidden-population overlays or real building assignments emitted."
  ],
  "project_root": "/home/synthestat",
  "random_seed": 420987,
  "release_mode": "review_candidate_cycle2_non_toy",
  "run_id": "se_population_review_cycle2_3a9d999a_seed420987",
  "selected_zone_count": 42,
  "selected_zones": [
    "0180C1890",
    "0180C6390",
    "0380B6011",
    "0330C1020",
    "0484C1240",
    "0484C1500",
    "0582A0030",
    "0580B5010",
    "0685C1040",
    "0680C1072",
    "0763A0030",
    "0780C1230",
    "0881C1030",
    "0880C1190",
    "0980A0180",
    "0980C1060",
    "1081A0010",
    "1080A0030",
    "1292B2020",
    "1263B2020",
    "1384C1310",
    "1381B2010",
    "1480C1770",
    "1480C2970",
    "1782C1020",
    "1780C1400",
    "1861A0030",
    "1880C1610",
    "1980C1080",
    "1980A0020",
    "2080C1130",
    "2080C1030",
    "2121A0010",
    "2180C1390",
    "2284C1190",
    "2281C1310",
    "2380C1240",
    "2380C1040",
    "2480C1520",
    "2480C1160",
    "2560A0020",
    "2582C1080"
  ],
  "source_catalogue_version": "SE_cycle2_p0_source_freeze_20260519T180750Z",
  "zones_degraded": []
}

constraint_residuals.json

{
  "candidate_scope": "stratified_multi_DeSO_not_full_national",
  "country": "SE",
  "hard_constraint_broken_rows": [],
  "hard_constraint_status": "pass_exact",
  "official_target_comparison": {
    "residual": 0,
    "selected_DeSO_population_target_2025": 91030,
    "status": "pass_exact_for_declared_selected_DeSO_scope",
    "synthetic_person_count": 91030
  },
  "reference_year": 2025,
  "residual_rows": [
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0180C1890_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 853,
      "target": 853,
      "zone_code": "0180C1890"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0180C1890_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 845,
      "target": 845,
      "zone_code": "0180C1890"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0180C6390_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1818,
      "target": 1818,
      "zone_code": "0180C6390"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0180C6390_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1775,
      "target": 1775,
      "zone_code": "0180C6390"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0380B6011_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 730,
      "target": 730,
      "zone_code": "0380B6011"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0380B6011_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 697,
      "target": 697,
      "zone_code": "0380B6011"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0330C1020_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1489,
      "target": 1489,
      "zone_code": "0330C1020"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0330C1020_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1492,
      "target": 1492,
      "zone_code": "0330C1020"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0484C1240_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 724,
      "target": 724,
      "zone_code": "0484C1240"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0484C1240_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 766,
      "target": 766,
      "zone_code": "0484C1240"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0484C1500_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1473,
      "target": 1473,
      "zone_code": "0484C1500"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0484C1500_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1332,
      "target": 1332,
      "zone_code": "0484C1500"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0582A0030_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 790,
      "target": 790,
      "zone_code": "0582A0030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0582A0030_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 780,
      "target": 780,
      "zone_code": "0582A0030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0580B5010_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1572,
      "target": 1572,
      "zone_code": "0580B5010"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0580B5010_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1497,
      "target": 1497,
      "zone_code": "0580B5010"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0685C1040_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 828,
      "target": 828,
      "zone_code": "0685C1040"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0685C1040_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 786,
      "target": 786,
      "zone_code": "0685C1040"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0680C1072_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1469,
      "target": 1469,
      "zone_code": "0680C1072"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0680C1072_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1376,
      "target": 1376,
      "zone_code": "0680C1072"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0763A0030_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 901,
      "target": 901,
      "zone_code": "0763A0030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0763A0030_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 749,
      "target": 749,
      "zone_code": "0763A0030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0780C1230_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1347,
      "target": 1347,
      "zone_code": "0780C1230"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0780C1230_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1339,
      "target": 1339,
      "zone_code": "0780C1230"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0881C1030_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 708,
      "target": 708,
      "zone_code": "0881C1030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0881C1030_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 662,
      "target": 662,
      "zone_code": "0881C1030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0880C1190_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1388,
      "target": 1388,
      "zone_code": "0880C1190"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0880C1190_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1468,
      "target": 1468,
      "zone_code": "0880C1190"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0980A0180_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 702,
      "target": 702,
      "zone_code": "0980A0180"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0980A0180_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 732,
      "target": 732,
      "zone_code": "0980A0180"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0980C1060_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1178,
      "target": 1178,
      "zone_code": "0980C1060"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_0980C1060_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1221,
      "target": 1221,
      "zone_code": "0980C1060"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1081A0010_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 755,
      "target": 755,
      "zone_code": "1081A0010"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1081A0010_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 741,
      "target": 741,
      "zone_code": "1081A0010"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1080A0030_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1388,
      "target": 1388,
      "zone_code": "1080A0030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1080A0030_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1329,
      "target": 1329,
      "zone_code": "1080A0030"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1292B2020_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 809,
      "target": 809,
      "zone_code": "1292B2020"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1292B2020_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 821,
      "target": 821,
      "zone_code": "1292B2020"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1263B2020_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1450,
      "target": 1450,
      "zone_code": "1263B2020"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1263B2020_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1440,
      "target": 1440,
      "zone_code": "1263B2020"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1384C1310_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 806,
      "target": 806,
      "zone_code": "1384C1310"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1384C1310_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 873,
      "target": 873,
      "zone_code": "1384C1310"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1381B2010_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1330,
      "target": 1330,
      "zone_code": "1381B2010"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1381B2010_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1326,
      "target": 1326,
      "zone_code": "1381B2010"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1480C1770_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 802,
      "target": 802,
      "zone_code": "1480C1770"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1480C1770_F",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 819,
      "target": 819,
      "zone_code": "1480C1770"
    },
    {
      "constraint_id": "D01_age_sex_1480C2970_M",
      "constraint_type": "HARD",
      "relative_error": 0.0,
      "residual": 0,
      "status": "pass",
      "synthetic": 1608,
      "target": 1608,
      "zone_c

… truncated after 12,000 characters …

household_diagnostics.json

{
  "constraint_status": "modelled_from_national_prior_not_hard_DeSO",
  "country": "SE",
  "household_count": 43739,
  "household_type_counts": {
    "HH_COUPLE_CHILDREN": 10,
    "HH_COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN": 18593,
    "HH_SINGLE_E": 2639,
    "HH_SINGLE_M": 15838,
    "HH_SINGLE_PARENT": 6659
  },
  "mean_household_size": 2.081208989688836,
  "person_count": 91030,
  "run_id": "se_population_review_cycle2_3a9d999a_seed420987"
}

dwelling_building_diagnostics.json

{
  "building_assignment_status": "unavailable",
  "country": "SE",
  "degraded_reason": "No official residential building/dwelling/address extract frozen; dwellings are shell records only.",
  "dwelling_count": 43739,
  "run_id": "se_population_review_cycle2_3a9d999a_seed420987"
}

distribution_diagnostics.json

{
  "confidence_or_quality_notes": [
    "P0 official SCB age-sex DeSO controls used as HARD for selected zones.",
    "Household size distribution uses national SCB household-size table; household membership is modelled.",
    "Occupation/industry at fine geography are fallback/prior-dominated and flagged per row."
  ],
  "country": "SE",
  "household_size_prior": {
    "counts": {
      "1": 2077552,
      "2": 1489277,
      "3": 558121,
      "4": 560515,
      "5": 195741,
      "6": 56185
    },
    "reference_year": 2024,
    "source_id": "SE_SCB_households_by_size"
  },
  "records_frozen": 20,
  "run_id": "se_population_review_cycle2_3a9d999a_seed420987",
  "selected_zones": [
    "0180C1890",
    "0180C6390",
    "0380B6011",
    "0330C1020",
    "0484C1240",
    "0484C1500",
    "0582A0030",
    "0580B5010",
    "0685C1040",
    "0680C1072",
    "0763A0030",
    "0780C1230",
    "0881C1030",
    "0880C1190",
    "0980A0180",
    "0980C1060",
    "1081A0010",
    "1080A0030",
    "1292B2020",
    "1263B2020",
    "1384C1310",
    "1381B2010",
    "1480C1770",
    "1480C2970",
    "1782C1020",
    "1780C1400",
    "1861A0030",
    "1880C1610",
    "1980C1080",
    "1980A0020",
    "2080C1130",
    "2080C1030",
    "2121A0010",
    "2180C1390",
    "2284C1190",
    "2281C1310",
    "2380C1240",
    "2380C1040",
    "2480C1520",
    "2480C1160",
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    "2582C1080"
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uncertainty_summary.json

{
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  "methods": {
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    "dwellings_buildings": "dwelling shells only; real building anchor unavailable",
    "households": "national household-size prior with structural plausibility only",
    "other_person_attributes": "deterministic source-informed priors; wide categorical uncertainty not fit to individual truth"
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    "Age-sex counts for selected DeSO zones have zero-width residuals against frozen SCB 2025 controls.",
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    "Hidden population overlays are unavailable rather than silently folded into private households."
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}

source_provenance.json

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… truncated after 12,000 characters …

unavailable.json

{
  "hidden_population_overlays": {
    "reason": "Marginal-source closure found official hidden-population source families only at institutional/national/soft-guide scope; no DeSO private-household hidden stock can be hard- or firm-constrained.",
    "required_evidence": "Homelessness, irregular migrant, dormitory/institutional and seasonal-worker resident-stock estimates by geography with reference-period semantics.",
    "status": "unavailable"
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  "synthetic_building_assignments": {
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    "required_evidence": "Official residential building/address/dwelling extract with stable IDs and DeSO/municipality linkage.",
    "status": "unavailable"
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    "required_evidence": "Workplace/school destination marginals or assignment priors by age/education/municipality with uncertainty.",
    "status": "unavailable"
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}