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bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987
Local run directory: /home/synthestat/output/runs/BG/bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987
This static page mirrors the run diagnostics/messages so they are clickable from the QA dashboard.
Output status People Households Dwellings Houses/buildings Max marginal deviation HARD status Validation rows 8 8 8 3 0.00% pass_exact 74
Run files File Bytes Kind assignment_diagnostics.json815 file build_manifest.json5,352 file constraint_residuals.json5,016 file distribution_diagnostics.json18,757 file dwelling_building_diagnostics.json1,838 file geography_quality_tiers.json14,802 file hidden_population_overlays.unavailable.json1,836 file household_diagnostics.json844 file model_notes.md3,063 file source_provenance.json37,458 file synthetic_building_assignments.parquet3,813 file synthetic_dwellings.parquet3,219 file synthetic_households.parquet2,941 file synthetic_persons.parquet5,582 file unavailable.json1,905 file uncertainty_summary.json17,396 file work_school_assignments.unavailable.json925 file
Datasets and distributions
Lists come from the latest run bundle: source_provenance.json, distribution_diagnostics.json, and build_manifest.json.
Summary
Datasets used 8 Distributions available 38 Constraints/distributions used in synthesis 43 Constraint types FIRM: 7, GUIDE: 18, HARD: 2, SOFT: 11 Dataset variants comparable_country: 11, current: 1, robust: 26 Finest-geography status constrained: 27, modelled: 11
Source gaps No live NSI retrieval adapter is implemented yet for BG Task 01. Building integration is still fixture-backed and requires dwelling inference. Current Bulgaria execution is an uncertainty-aware seeded slice, not a production national extraction path.
Datasets used Dataset/source ID BG_ADMIN_address_contextBG_AGCC_seeded_buildingsBG_NSI_boundariesBG_NSI_educationBG_NSI_employmentBG_NSI_householdsBG_NSI_incomeBG_NSI_population
Best source by distribution family Distribution family Dataset/source ID D01_demographics_finestBG_NSI_populationD05_educationBG_NSI_educationD12_household_typeBG_NSI_householdsbuilding_stockBG_AGCC_seeded_buildingsemployment_occupation_industryBG_NSI_employmentgeography_boundariesBG_NSI_boundariesincomeBG_NSI_income
Available distributions / priors in registry Spec Label Type Geo Status Variant Confidence Data URI C01_education_occupation_couplingEducation-occupation coupling strength GUIDE national modelled comparable_country 0.6 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC02_assortative_mating_educationAssortative mating by education GUIDE NUTS-1 modelled comparable_country 0.61 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC03_assortative_mating_ageAssortative mating by age GUIDE NUTS-1 modelled comparable_country 0.68 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC04_assortative_mating_originAssortative mating by origin GUIDE NUTS-1 modelled comparable_country 0.62 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC05_spatial_sorting_educationSpatial sorting by education GUIDE national modelled comparable_country 0.7 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC06_spatial_sorting_incomeSpatial sorting by income GUIDE national modelled comparable_country 0.7 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC07_spatial_sorting_originSpatial sorting by origin GUIDE national modelled comparable_country 0.72 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC08_intergenerational_income_elasticityIntergenerational income elasticity GUIDE national modelled comparable_country 0.58 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC09_intergenerational_occupation_transmissionIntergenerational occupation transmission GUIDE national modelled comparable_country 0.58 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC10_commuting_mode_distanceCommuting mode × distance × occupation × region GUIDE NUTS-1 modelled comparable_country 0.64 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlC11_health_age_sex_educationHealth × age × sex × education GUIDE national modelled comparable_country 0.62 data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yamlD01_age_sex_nuts3Age × sex at NUTS-3 HARD NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.74 docs/wiki/compiled/D01_age_sex_nuts3.mdD01_census_age_sex_nuts3Census age × sex at NUTS-3 HARD NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.74 docs/wiki/compiled/D01_census_age_sex_nuts3.mdD02_marital_nuts3Marital status × age × sex at NUTS-3 FIRM NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.73 docs/wiki/compiled/D02_marital_nuts3.mdD03_origin_age_sexOrigin group × age × sex FIRM NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.73 docs/wiki/compiled/D03_origin_age_sex.mdD04_religion_age_sex_regionReligion × age × sex × region GUIDE NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D04_religion_age_sex_region.mdD05_census_education_nuts3Census education at NUTS-3 FIRM NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.73 docs/wiki/compiled/D05_census_education_nuts3.mdD05_education_nuts2Education at NUTS-2 FIRM NUTS-2 constrained current 0.7 docs/wiki/compiled/D05_education_nuts2.mdD06_employment_age_sex_educationEmployment status × age × sex × education FIRM unknown constrained robust 0.73 docs/wiki/compiled/D06_employment_age_sex_education.mdD07_occupation_isco3Occupation ISCO-3 distribution SOFT unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D07_occupation_isco3.mdD08_occupation_educationOccupation × education SOFT unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D08_occupation_education.mdD09_industry_nace2Industry NACE-2 distribution SOFT unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D09_industry_nace2.mdD10_income_education_occupationIncome × education × occupation SOFT unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D10_income_education_occupation.mdD11_income_household_type_regionIncome × household type × region SOFT NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D11_income_household_type_region.mdD12_household_type_size_regionHousehold type × size × region FIRM NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.73 docs/wiki/compiled/D12_household_type_size_region.mdD13_children_mother_age_educationChildren × mother age × education SOFT NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D13_children_mother_age_education.mdD14_partner_age_gap_homogamyPartner age gap × homogamy SOFT NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D14_partner_age_gap_homogamy.mdD15_coresidence_structureCo-residence structure SOFT NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D15_coresidence_structure.mdD16_household_income_type_regionHousehold income × type × region SOFT NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D16_household_income_type_region.mdD17_education_mobilityEducation mobility GUIDE unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D17_education_mobility.mdD18_occupation_given_educationOccupation | education SOFT unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D18_occupation_given_education.mdD19_employment_given_demographicsEmployment | demographics SOFT unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D19_employment_given_demographics.mdD20_birth_intervalsBirth intervals GUIDE unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D20_birth_intervals.mdD21_age_first_birthAge at first birth × education × cohort GUIDE unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D21_age_first_birth.mdD22_age_leaving_homeAge leaving home GUIDE unknown constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D22_age_leaving_home.mdD23_divorce_duration_children_educationDivorce × duration × children × education GUIDE NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D23_divorce_duration_children_education.mdD24_age_marriage_sex_educationAge at marriage × sex × education GUIDE NUTS-3 constrained robust 0.71 docs/wiki/compiled/D24_age_marriage_sex_education.mdD25_internal_migrationInternal migration FIRM unknown constrained robust 0.73 docs/wiki/compiled/D25_internal_migration.md
Constraints/distributions used in synthesis manifest Constraint or distribution ID CORR_OCC_EMPLOYMENTD01D12EMPLOYMENT_CODE_LINKFIRMGUIDEHARDHARMONIZATIONHH_CHILD_ADULTHH_COUPLE_TWO_ADULTSHH_SINGLE_SIZE_ONEHH_SIZE_PLAUSIBLEHMN_AGE_RANGEHMN_BIRTH_DATEHMN_BUILDING_SCHEMAHMN_DWELLING_BUILDING_REFHMN_DWELLING_SCHEMAHMN_EDUCATIONHMN_EDUCATION_AGEHMN_EDUCATION_GROUPHMN_EMPLOYMENTHMN_HOUSEHOLD_DWELLING_REFHMN_HOUSEHOLD_SCHEMAHMN_HOUSEHOLD_TYPEHMN_INDUSTRYHMN_MARITALHMN_OCCUPATIONHMN_ORIGINHMN_PERSON_HOUSEHOLD_REFHMN_PERSON_SCHEMAHMN_RETIRED_AGEHMN_SEXINFORMATIONALMODEL_FALLBACK_RATEMODEL_REGISTRY_PROFILESPATIALSPT_BUILDING_COORDSSPT_DWELLING_BUILDING_REFSPT_DWELLING_HOUSEHOLD_REFSPT_HH_DWELLING_REFSPT_PERSON_HOUSEHOLD_REFSTRUCTURALXCN_COMPARABILITY
model_notes.md # BG population review bundle — cycle 2
Run ID: `bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987`
Bundle path: `/home/synthestat/output/runs/BG/bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987`
Created at: 2026-05-19T17:01:19Z
Release mode: internal research review.
## What this bundle is
This is the cycle-2 Bulgaria review bundle after the marginal/distribution source-gap handoffs. No newly frozen/catalogued downloader tables were available to consume, so the model remains the seeded BG fixture slice without fabricating national precision. It packages the seeded BG population slice: 8 synthetic persons in 8 households, linked to 8 inferred/seeded dwellings and 3 AGCC-style seeded buildings across 2 naseleno-myasto-style test zones (`SET_BG_TEST_001`, `SET_BG_TEST_002`).
## HARD residual status
HARD constraints: PASS exact; no HARD residual rows failed.
Validation summary: {'pass': 68, 'warn': 4, 'skip': 2} across 74 rows. Warning rows are preserved in `constraint_residuals.json`; no constraint relaxation was performed for this review bundle.
## Measured, constrained, modelled, unknown
- Measured/constrained: seeded BG D01 demographic and D12 household constraints in the current registry/validation layer.
- Seeded/modelled: household microstructure, occupation/industry detail, correlational Cxx distributions, building/dwelling placement beyond fixture links.
- Unknown/unavailable: hidden-population overlays, institutional/group-quarter populations, work/school/facility assignments, nationwide live NSI extraction status.
## Uncertainty and modelled layers
Uncertainty/provenance are first-class outputs. Registry/modelled/transfer inputs are listed in `distribution_diagnostics.json`, `uncertainty_summary.json`, and `source_provenance.json`. Hidden populations are explicitly unavailable because the current BG path lacks separate uncertainty-aware small-area sources. Work/school/facility assignments are also unavailable; the bundle does not infer them from weak evidence.
## Quality caveats for reviewer
- Scope is seeded/internal, not nationwide Bulgaria 1:1 synthesis.
- Current finest supported geography is seeded naseleno-myasto-style test zones, not all Bulgarian settlements.
- Building/dwelling realism is an AGCC-style seeded fixture plus dwelling inference, not live national building-register assignment.
- Occupation/industry at fine geography are modelled; ISCO-3 is unavailable and flagged as `fallback_1digit`.
- Live BG NSI retrieval is not implemented in the promoted path; current bundle relies on existing seeded/manual catalogue artifacts.
## Expected routing
The bundle is contract-complete for synth-reviewer inspection but should not receive a PASS-style population-realism verdict. Because the current code/catalogue layer still lacks frozen national BG extraction inputs, the appropriate reviewer routing is degraded seeded-scope review, with MODEL_IMPROVEMENT_EXHAUSTED_HUMAN_REVIEW only if the reviewer agrees no material model-only improvement is responsible without the requested evidence.
build_manifest.json {
"assignment_scope": {
"dwelling_building": "available_seeded",
"facility": "unavailable",
"school": "unavailable",
"work": "unavailable"
},
"classification_crosswalk_versions": {
"education": "ISCED-2011 seeded mapping",
"industry": "NACE Rev.2 seeded/modelled mapping",
"occupation": "ISCO-08 seeded/modelled fallback to 1 digit"
},
"constraints_relaxed": [],
"constraints_used": [
"CORR_OCC_EMPLOYMENT",
"D01",
"D12",
"EMPLOYMENT_CODE_LINK",
"FIRM",
"GUIDE",
"HARD",
"HARMONIZATION",
"HH_CHILD_ADULT",
"HH_COUPLE_TWO_ADULTS",
"HH_SINGLE_SIZE_ONE",
"HH_SIZE_PLAUSIBLE",
"HMN_AGE_RANGE",
"HMN_BIRTH_DATE",
"HMN_BUILDING_SCHEMA",
"HMN_DWELLING_BUILDING_REF",
"HMN_DWELLING_SCHEMA",
"HMN_EDUCATION",
"HMN_EDUCATION_AGE",
"HMN_EDUCATION_GROUP",
"HMN_EMPLOYMENT",
"HMN_HOUSEHOLD_DWELLING_REF",
"HMN_HOUSEHOLD_SCHEMA",
"HMN_HOUSEHOLD_TYPE",
"HMN_INDUSTRY",
"HMN_MARITAL",
"HMN_OCCUPATION",
"HMN_ORIGIN",
"HMN_PERSON_HOUSEHOLD_REF",
"HMN_PERSON_SCHEMA",
"HMN_RETIRED_AGE",
"HMN_SEX",
"INFORMATIONAL",
"MODEL_FALLBACK_RATE",
"MODEL_REGISTRY_PROFILE",
"SPATIAL",
"SPT_BUILDING_COORDS",
"SPT_DWELLING_BUILDING_REF",
"SPT_DWELLING_HOUSEHOLD_REF",
"SPT_HH_DWELLING_REF",
"SPT_PERSON_HOUSEHOLD_REF",
"STRUCTURAL",
"XCN_COMPARABILITY"
],
"contract_files": [
"synthetic_persons.parquet",
"synthetic_households.parquet",
"synthetic_dwellings.parquet",
"synthetic_building_assignments.parquet",
"hidden_population_overlays.unavailable.json",
"work_school_assignments.unavailable.json",
"build_manifest.json",
"constraint_residuals.json",
"distribution_diagnostics.json",
"household_diagnostics.json",
"dwelling_building_diagnostics.json",
"assignment_diagnostics.json",
"geography_quality_tiers.json",
"uncertainty_summary.json",
"source_provenance.json",
"model_notes.md",
"unavailable.json"
],
"country": "BG",
"created_at": "2026-05-19T17:01:19Z",
"geography_version": {
"seeded_test_zones": [
"SET_BG_TEST_001",
"SET_BG_TEST_002"
],
"target": "BG_NASELENO_MYASTO_SEEDED_REVIEW"
},
"git_commit": "a5ad12d74bcf64a2c256e1fe83d99cc700e02bba-dirty",
"git_dirty": true,
"hard_constraint_status": "pass_exact",
"hidden_population_scope": {
"homelessness": {
"reason": "No BG small-area measured homelessness distribution with uncertainty bounds is integrated in the current source layer.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"institutional_populations": {
"reason": "No institution/group-quarter person layer integrated for BG in the current seeded synthesis path.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"refugees_asylum_seekers": {
"reason": "No integrated Bulgaria age/sex/household/settlement-level refugee/asylum stock source with uncertainty bounds is wired into this seeded path.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"students": {
"reason": "Education attributes exist only as modelled/constrained person attributes; no separate student-location/school assignment overlay is available.",
"status": "unavailable_overlay"
},
"syrian_refugees": {
"reason": "No Bulgaria-specific small-area measured source with bounds is integrated; model-only allocation would violate the uncertainty guardrail.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"ukrainian_displaced_people": {
"reason": "Known policy-relevant group for Bulgaria, but no separate uncertainty-aware temporary-protection overlay source is integrated for this run.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"undocumented_seasonal_populations": {
"reason": "No measured distribution with uncertainty bounds in current repo inputs.",
"status": "unavailable"
}
},
"known_limitations": [
"Small seeded BG review slice only: 2 naseleno-myasto-style test zones, 8 persons/households; not nationwide 1:1 Bulgaria synthesis.",
"Source-gap parents produced official NSI Census/current-statistics, Eurostat Census/LFS/SILC, NSI open-data and GGP leads, but no newly frozen/catalogued downloader artifacts were available to consume in synthesis.",
"Live NSI retrieval adapter is not implemented; current bundle relies on existing seeded/manual catalogue artifacts.",
"Buildings are AGCC-style seeded fixtures; dwellings may be inferred and are not full national register integration.",
"Hidden populations and work/school assignments unavailable rather than modelled without bounds.",
"Fine occupation detail is model-driven/fallback; ISCO-3 unavailable and flagged as fallback_1digit."
],
"missing_key_inputs": [],
"new_frozen_catalogued_inputs_consumed": [],
"population_counts": {
"buildings": 3,
"dwellings": 8,
"households": 8,
"persons": 8
},
"project_root": "/home/synthestat",
"random_seed": 420987,
"release_mode": "internal_research_review",
"run_id": "bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987",
"source_catalogue_version": {
"readiness_status": "pass",
"registry": "output/catalogue/distribution_registry_BG.json",
"source_inventory_report": "output/BG/source_inventory_report.json"
},
"zones_degraded": []
}
constraint_residuals.json {
"constraint_precedence": [
"HARD",
"FIRM",
"SOFT",
"GUIDE",
"INFORMATIONAL"
],
"constraint_type_counts": {
"FIRM": 2,
"GUIDE": 2,
"HARD": 4,
"HARMONIZATION": 40,
"INFORMATIONAL": 6,
"SPATIAL": 10,
"STRUCTURAL": 10
},
"country": "BG",
"hard_constraint_broken_rows": [],
"hard_constraint_status": "pass_exact",
"residual_rows_source": "output/BG/validation_report.parquet",
"residuals_by_constraint_type": {
"FIRM": {
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.0,
"row_count": 2,
"status_counts": {
"pass": 2
},
"tolerance_policy": "normally <=2%"
},
"GUIDE": {
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.0,
"row_count": 2,
"status_counts": {
"pass": 2
},
"tolerance_policy": "prior only"
},
"HARD": {
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.0,
"row_count": 4,
"status_counts": {
"pass": 4
},
"tolerance_policy": "exact"
},
"HARMONIZATION": {
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.0,
"row_count": 40,
"status_counts": {
"pass": 40
},
"tolerance_policy": "structural/harmonization check; see validation rows"
},
"INFORMATIONAL": {
"max_abs_relative_error": 1.0,
"row_count": 6,
"status_counts": {
"skip": 2,
"warn": 4
},
"tolerance_policy": "not constraining"
},
"SPATIAL": {
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.0,
"row_count": 10,
"status_counts": {
"pass": 10
},
"tolerance_policy": "structural/harmonization check; see validation rows"
},
"STRUCTURAL": {
"max_abs_relative_error": 0.0,
"row_count": 10,
"status_counts": {
"pass": 10
},
"tolerance_policy": "structural/harmonization check; see validation rows"
}
},
"run_id": "bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987",
"skip_rows": [
{
"check_group": "cross_country",
"confidence": 0.0,
"constraint_type": "INFORMATIONAL",
"country": "BG",
"distribution_id": "XCN_COMPARABILITY",
"message": "cross-country comparability requires 2+ countries",
"pooling_level": "cross_country",
"relative_error": 0.0,
"severity": "informational",
"status": "skip",
"synthetic_value": 0.0,
"target_value": 0.0,
"zone_code": "SET_BG_TEST_001"
},
{
"check_group": "cross_country",
"confidence": 0.0,
"constraint_type": "INFORMATIONAL",
"country": "BG",
"distribution_id": "XCN_COMPARABILITY",
"message": "cross-country comparability requires 2+ countries",
"pooling_level": "cross_country",
"relative_error": 0.0,
"severity": "informational",
"status": "skip",
"synthetic_value": 0.0,
"target_value": 0.0,
"zone_code": "SET_BG_TEST_002"
}
],
"status_counts": {
"pass": 68,
"skip": 2,
"warn": 4
},
"validation_row_count": 74,
"warn_rows": [
{
"check_group": "marginal",
"confidence": 0.6,
"constraint_type": "INFORMATIONAL",
"country": "BG",
"distribution_id": "MODEL_FALLBACK_RATE",
"message": "share of employed persons using fallback_1digit occupation coding",
"pooling_level": "partially_constrained",
"relative_error": 1.0,
"severity": "informational",
"status": "warn",
"synthetic_value": 1.0,
"target_value": 0.0,
"zone_code": "SET_BG_TEST_001"
},
{
"check_group": "marginal",
"confidence": 0.6,
"constraint_type": "INFORMATIONAL",
"country": "BG",
"distribution_id": "MODEL_REGISTRY_PROFILE",
"message": "registry profile indicates comparable-country dependence",
"pooling_level": "partially_constrained",
"relative_error": 0.289,
"severity": "informational",
"status": "warn",
"synthetic_value": 0.289,
"target_value": 0.0,
"zone_code": "SET_BG_TEST_001"
},
{
"check_group": "marginal",
"confidence": 0.6,
"constraint_type": "INFORMATIONAL",
"country": "BG",
"distribution_id": "MODEL_FALLBACK_RATE",
"message": "share of employed persons using fallback_1digit occupation coding",
"pooling_level": "partially_constrained",
"relative_error": 1.0,
"severity": "informational",
"status": "warn",
"synthetic_value": 1.0,
"target_value": 0.0,
"zone_code": "SET_BG_TEST_002"
},
{
"check_group": "marginal",
"confidence": 0.6,
"constraint_type": "INFORMATIONAL",
"country": "BG",
"distribution_id": "MODEL_REGISTRY_PROFILE",
"message": "registry profile indicates comparable-country dependence",
"pooling_level": "partially_constrained",
"relative_error": 0.289,
"severity": "informational",
"status": "warn",
"synthetic_value": 0.289,
"target_value": 0.0,
"zone_code": "SET_BG_TEST_002"
}
]
}
household_diagnostics.json {
"country": "BG",
"family_composition_status": "weak_seeded_modelled",
"household_count": 8,
"household_role_counts": {
"reference": 8
},
"household_size_counts": {
"1": 8
},
"household_type_counts": {
"HH_SINGLE_E": 2,
"HH_SINGLE_M": 3,
"HH_SINGLE_Y": 3
},
"households_without_dwelling": [],
"notes": [
"Seeded BG slice currently has 8 one-person households; family composition and parent/child age-gap realism cannot be validated beyond explicit unavailability/weak modelling notes."
],
"parent_child_age_gap_status": "not_evaluable_no_child_households_in_seeded_BG_slice",
"person_count": 8,
"persons_without_household": [],
"run_id": "bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987",
"school_attendance_status": "education attribute only; no school attendance/assignment layer"
}
dwelling_building_diagnostics.json {
"assignment_counts": {
"linked_seeded_agcc_fixture": 8
},
"building_count": 3,
"building_inventory_report": {
"artifacts": {
"buildings_path": "/home/synthestat/output/BG/buildings.parquet",
"dwellings_path": "/home/synthestat/output/BG/dwellings.parquet"
},
"boundary_path": "/home/synthestat/config/buildings/BG/settlement_seed.geojson",
"building_count": 3,
"capacity_check": {
"dwelling_count": 8,
"household_count": 8,
"ok": true,
"shortfall": 0
},
"country": "BG",
"dwelling_count": 8,
"notes": [
"Seeded BG Task 02 slice built from AGCC-style building fixtures plus naseleno_myasto-style seeded polygons.",
"This remains a seeded bulgaria building-stock slice with heuristic dwelling inference, not a full national register integration."
],
"quality_tier": "B2",
"raw_path": "/home/synthestat/config/buildings/BG/agcc_seed.json",
"zone_counts": {
"SET_BG_TEST_001": 2,
"SET_BG_TEST_002": 1
}
},
"building_quality_tier_counts": {
"B2": 3
},
"capacity_check": {
"dwelling_count": 8,
"household_count": 8,
"ok": true,
"shortfall": 0
},
"caveats": [
"Dwellings are inferred where observed dwelling counts are absent; building realism is suitable only for internal seeded-path review."
],
"country": "BG",
"dwelling_count": 8,
"dwelling_status_counts": {
"inferred": 5,
"observed": 3
},
"household_count": 8,
"real_building_status": "seeded_agcc_style_fixture_not_live_national_register",
"review_bundle_repair": {
"synthetic_dwellings_household_id": "populated_from_synthetic_households.dwelling_id for cycle-2 rerun; source output/BG/dwellings.parquet remains unchanged"
},
"run_id": "bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987"
}
distribution_diagnostics.json {
"blocking_issues": [],
"by_constraint_type": {
"FIRM": 7,
"GUIDE": 18,
"HARD": 2,
"SOFT": 11
},
"by_dataset_variant": {
"comparable_country": 11,
"current": 1,
"robust": 26
},
"by_finest_geography_status": {
"constrained": 27,
"modelled": 11
},
"confidence_below_0_7": [
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c01_education_occupation_coupling__transfer_from_de",
"confidence": 0.6,
"constraint_type": "GUIDE",
"country": "BG",
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"constraint_type": "SOFT",
"dataset_variant": "robust",
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"credible_level": 0.9,
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}
},
{
"catalogue_id": "D15_coresidence_structure",
"confidence": 0.71,
"constraint_type": "SOFT",
"datase
… truncated after 12,000 characters … source_provenance.json {
"best_distribution_sources": {
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"D05_education": "BG_NSI_education",
"D12_household_type": "BG_NSI_households",
"building_stock": "BG_AGCC_seeded_buildings",
"employment_occupation_industry": "BG_NSI_employment",
"geography_boundaries": "BG_NSI_boundaries",
"income": "BG_NSI_income"
},
"catalogue_sources": {
"coverage": "output/catalogue/distribution_coverage_BG.json",
"readiness": "output/catalogue/distribution_readiness_BG.json",
"registry": "output/catalogue/distribution_registry_BG.json"
},
"country": "BG",
"created_at": "2026-05-19T17:01:19Z",
"geography_levels": [
"NUTS-1",
"NUTS-2",
"NUTS-3",
"national",
"unknown"
],
"manual_sources": [
"BG_NSI_population",
"BG_NSI_households",
"BG_NSI_education",
"BG_NSI_employment",
"BG_NSI_income",
"BG_NSI_boundaries",
"BG_AGCC_seeded_buildings",
"BG_ADMIN_address_context"
],
"new_frozen_catalogued_inputs_consumed": [],
"provenance_completion_audit": {
"entries_with_checksum": 0,
"entries_with_licence_or_license": 0,
"entries_with_reference_period": 0,
"entries_with_retrieval_timestamp": 0,
"entries_with_source_url": 0,
"entry_count": 38,
"status": "partial; handoff source routes are documented but registry entries are not yet fully downloader-frozen with per-entry URL/timestamp/licence/checksum"
},
"quality_flags": {
"readiness_status": "pass",
"source_gaps": [
"No live NSI retrieval adapter is implemented yet for BG Task 01.",
"Building integration is still fixture-backed and requires dwelling inference.",
"Current Bulgaria execution is an uncertainty-aware seeded slice, not a production national extraction path."
],
"warning_issues": []
},
"reference_periods": "See registry entries/source catalogue; bundle does not rewrite source periods.",
"registry_entries": [
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c01_education_occupation_coupling__transfer_from_de",
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}
},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c02_assortative_mating_education__transfer_from_de",
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},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c03_assortative_mating_age__transfer_from_de",
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}
},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c04_assortative_mating_origin__transfer_from_de",
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"constraint_type": "GUIDE",
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},
{
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},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c06_spatial_sorting_income__transfer_from_de",
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},
{
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}
},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c08_intergenerational_income_elasticity__transfer_from_de",
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}
},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c09_intergenerational_occupation_transmission__transfer_from_de",
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"constraint_type": "GUIDE",
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"region_id": null,
"schema_hash": "442742abe9c98b9e140543e204024034e0af7af48f434f22ce06c293940cb417",
"spec_id": "C09_intergenerational_occupation_transmission",
"spec_label": "Intergenerational occupation transmission",
"uncertainty": {
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"credible_level": 0.9,
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"method": "literature_regression"
}
},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c10_commuting_mode_distance__transfer_from_de",
"confidence": 0.64,
"constraint_type": "GUIDE",
"country": "BG",
"data_uri": "data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml",
"dataset_variant": "comparable_country",
"evidence_quality": "academic_literature",
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"pooling_level": "comparable_country",
"priority_weight": "low",
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"schema_hash": "2015fab2a394a190c86a9f6689f241a0cc479afe8e92a88dd282ecfe5b3a669b",
"spec_id": "C10_commuting_mode_distance",
"spec_label": "Commuting mode × distance × occupation × region",
"uncertainty": {
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"credible_level": 0.9,
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"method": "literature_transition"
}
},
{
"catalogue_id": "literature:de-c11_health_age_sex_education__transfer_from_de",
"confidence": 0.62,
"constraint_type": "GUIDE",
"country": "BG",
"data_uri": "data/literature/seeded_occupation_priors.yaml",
"dataset_variant": "comparable_country",
"evidence_quality": "academic_literature",
"finest_geography_status": "modelled",
"geo_level": "national",
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"spec_id": "C11_health_age_sex_education",
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"uncertainty": {
"bounds_uri": null,
"credible_level": 0.9,
… truncated after 12,000 characters … unavailable.json {
"categories": {
"homelessness": {
"reason": "No BG small-area measured homelessness distribution with uncertainty bounds is integrated in the current source layer.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"institutional_populations": {
"reason": "No institution/group-quarter person layer integrated for BG in the current seeded synthesis path.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"refugees_asylum_seekers": {
"reason": "No integrated Bulgaria age/sex/household/settlement-level refugee/asylum stock source with uncertainty bounds is wired into this seeded path.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"students": {
"reason": "Education attributes exist only as modelled/constrained person attributes; no separate student-location/school assignment overlay is available.",
"status": "unavailable_overlay"
},
"syrian_refugees": {
"reason": "No Bulgaria-specific small-area measured source with bounds is integrated; model-only allocation would violate the uncertainty guardrail.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"ukrainian_displaced_people": {
"reason": "Known policy-relevant group for Bulgaria, but no separate uncertainty-aware temporary-protection overlay source is integrated for this run.",
"status": "unavailable"
},
"undocumented_seasonal_populations": {
"reason": "No measured distribution with uncertainty bounds in current repo inputs.",
"status": "unavailable"
}
},
"country": "BG",
"created_at": "2026-05-19T17:01:19Z",
"files": {
"hidden_population_overlays.parquet": "hidden_population_overlays.unavailable.json",
"work_school_assignments.parquet": "work_school_assignments.unavailable.json"
},
"principle": "Unavailable/weak layers are explicit and do not alter de jure/core HARD constraints.",
"run_id": "bg_population_review_cycle2_16b73a96_seed420987"
}
Generated 2026-05-19 20:58:19 CEST · auto-refreshes every 15 seconds · static directory: /home/synthestat/output/site/population-qa